Expose of Fallacious Claims that Male Circumcision Will Increase HIV Infections in Africa

Despite over two decades of extensive research showing that male circumcision protects against heterosexual acquisition of HIV in men; and that includes findings from large randomized controlled trials leading to acceptance by the WHO/UNAIDS and the Cochrane Committee; opponents of circumcision continue to generate specious arguments to the contrary. In a recent issue of the Journal of Public Health in Africa; Van Howe and Storms claim that male circumcision will increase HIV infections in Africa. Here we review the statements they use in support of their thesis and show that there is no scientific basis to such an assertion. We also evaluate the statistics used and show that when these data are properly analyzed the results lead to a contrary conclusion affirming the major role of male circumcision in protecting against HIV infection in Africa. Researchers; policy makers and the wider community should rely on balanced scholarship when assessing scientific evidence. We trust that our assessment may help refute the claims by Van Howe and Storms; and provide reassurance on the importance of circumcision for HIV prevention

The Potential Impact of Male Circumcision on HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa

Background: A randomized controlled trial (RCT) has shown that male circumcision (MC) reduces sexual transmission of HIV from women to men by 60(32?76; 95CI) offering an intervention of proven efficacy for reducing the sexual spread of HIV. We explore the implications of this finding for the promotion of MC as a public health intervention to control HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods and Findings :Using dynamical simulation models we consider the impact of MC on the relative prevalence of HIV in men and women and in circumcised and uncircumcised men. Using country level data on HIV prevalence and MC; we estimate the impact of increasing MC coverage on HIV incidence; HIV prevalence; and HIV-related deaths over the next ten; twenty; and thirty years in sub-Saharan Africa. Assuming that full coverage of MC is achieved over the next ten years; we consider three scenarios in which the reduction in transmission is given by the best estimate and the upper and lower 95confidence limits of the reduction in transmission observed in the RCT. MC could avert 2.0 (1.1?3.8) million new HIV infections and 0.3 (0.1?0.5) million deaths over the next ten years in sub-Saharan Africa. In the ten years after that; it could avert a further 3.7 (1.9?7.5) million new HIV infections and 2.7 (1.5?5.3) million deaths; with about one quarter of all the incident cases prevented and the deaths averted occurring in South Africa. We show that a) MC will increase the proportion of infected people who are women from about 52to 58; b) where there is homogenous mixing but not all men are circumcised; the prevalence of infection in circumcised men is likely to be about 80of that in uncircumcised men; c) MC is equivalent to an intervention; such as a vaccine or increased condom use; that reduces transmission in both directions by 37. Conclusions: This analysis is based on the result of just one RCT; but if the results of that trial are confirmed we suggest that MC could substantially reduce the burden of HIV in Africa; especially in southern Africa where the prevalence of MC is low and the prevalence of HIV is high. While the protective benefit to HIV-negative men will be immediate; the full impact of MC on HIV-related illness and death will only be apparent in ten to twenty years